Benefit-Cost Analysis

Table 5
Benefit-Cost Analysis Net Present Value of Benefits Costs Benefit-Cost Ratio
Benefit-Cost Results North Gap
Benefits with 7% Discount Rate
High Estimate $922,652,549 $17,652,440 52.27
Best Estimate $485,784,202 $17,652,440 27.52
Low Estimate $385,156,423 $17,652,440 21.82
Benefits with 3% Discount Rate
High Estimate $1,273,047,552 $17,826,240 71.41
Best Estimate $670,270,071 $17,826,240 37.60
Low Estimate $531,426,962 $17,826,240 29.81
Benefit-Cost Results South Gap
Benefits with 7% Discount Rate
High Estimate $1,514,069,478 $21,053,123 71.92
Best Estimate $1,063,210,420 $21,053,123 50.50
Low Estimate $959,359,614 $21,053,123 45.57
Benefits with 3% Discount Rate
High Estimate $2,089,066,405 $21,053,123 99.23
Best Estimate $1,466,984,972 $21,053,123 69.68
Low Estimate $1,323,694,830 $21,053,123 62.87
Benefit-Cost Results Entire Loop
Benefits with 7% Discount Rate
High Estimate $2,115,906,002 $38,303,161 55.24
Best Estimate $1,339,703,770 $38,303,161 34.98
Low Estimate $1,160,913,835 $38,303,161 30.31
Benefits with 3% Discount Rate
High Estimate $3,116,725,614 $39,223,190 79.46
Best Estimate $1,973,381,167 $39,223,190 50.31
Low Estimate $1,710,023,925 $39,223,190 43.60

Pinellas County is requesting $19,156,129 in TIGER grant funds for Completing the Pinellas Trail Loop. The total project cost is estimated at $31,083,229. Pinellas County has already programmed the local match funds of $11,927,100 in its Capital Improvement Program (Appendix E). Due to declining revenues for transportation improvements and the magnitude of this project, without the receipt of this grant funding,  it is not anticipated that the projects associated with Completing the Pinellas Trail Loop will be completed in the near future.

Table 5 shows the benefit-cost ratio of Completing the Pinellas Trail Loop, broken out by North and South Gaps. The full benefit-cost analysis is provided in Appendix C. Overall, the benefit-cost ratio for Completing the Loop is nearly $35 to each dollar, using best estimates at a 7% discount rate.

Factors included in the benefit-cost analysis include reducing pedestrian and bicycle fatalities and injuries, increased access to current workplace, increased access to jobs and education, increased access to basic needs (such as food and medical services) and having less automobiles on the road.

In addition to the information analyzed for the benefit-cost analysis, there is an estimated benefit of over $68 million in direct medical benefits from construction. This is estimated based on a study in Lincoln, Nebraska, which found that for every $1 spent on trails, $2.94 is gained in direct medical benefits. Completing the Loop will result in over $23 million in trail investment, including design and construction (Health Promotion Practice, “A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Physical Activity using Bike/Pedestrian Trails” 2004).